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FEDERAL
ELECTION 2000 - THE STRUGGLE FOR THE SOUL OF CANADA
An Analysis
Nelson Riis,
the defeated NDP candidate from Kamloops, BC, put the 2000 federal
election into perspective when he stated that it was the nastiest
campaign he had experienced in the six campaigns in which he had
participated. Mudslinging, regionalism, religious bigotry and demonizing
the party leaders were central to the campaign.
The Election
Campaign
The canny Liberal leader, Jean Chrétien, called the election
for November 27, even though he had two years left to run in his
mandate. He did so for two reasons: he shrewdly understood that
elections are won on organization and experience (with which his
party was generously endowed) and he wanted to stave off the ascendancy
of his rival, Paul Martin. There can be no doubt that the Liberal
win of 172 seats (up from 163) was due to the tremendous advantage
in organization and experience it held over its main opposition,
the Canadian Alliance Party.
Liberals
The Liberal Party of Canada has dominated and governed Canada for
much of the past century, and, as such, is known as the "natural
governing party." It consistently rules from the Toronto-Ottawa-Montreal
axis with the Prime Minister firmly in control, making all major
decisions, unabashedly awarding grants and appointments to Liberal
friends and supporters.
The Liberals
were also aided in this election by the fact that times are good,
surpluses burgeoning and serious tax cuts were promised. Most importantly,
though, is the fact that the Liberal's long stay in power has given
them campaign experience and organizational skills. The party established
a "war room" in the election, dominated by a lawyer, Warren
Kinsella, author of the book, Web of Hate, (in which he had attacked
without substantive facts, any organization or individual breathing,
who does not support his own personal left-wing agenda.) True to
form, the Liberal war room sent out a steady stream of faxes to
the media making claims without any factual back-up. The Liberals
further pressed their attack with demagogic TV ads, misrepresenting
the policies and objectives of the Canadian Alliance Party.
Significantly,
the Liberal party, which has run Canada during the last half of
this century by setting aside any religious beliefs of its leaders
or supporters, began a public relations war by claiming the Alliance
had a "hidden agenda," contaminated by (gasp!) religious
beliefs. It carefully plotted a strategy of fear-mongering, by "carpet
bombing" the Canadian Alliance leader, Stockwell Day, through
character assaults, to keep him on the defensive, thus preventing
him from putting forward his own message. The objective of this
campaign was to lock the Alliance out of Ontario and to keep it
safely within western borders, with its voters who hold peculiar
ideas and make unreasonable and unacceptable demands on the wise
and experienced central (Liberal) government. The Liberals also
used their traditional electoral leverage (which resonated in the
more economically depressed Atlantic provinces), that to elect a
Liberal MP is to ensure claims are heard by Cabinet.
In this strategy,
the Liberals were ably assisted by influential "elites,"
such as much of the media, corporate leaders and professionals,
especially lawyers (the majority of whom reside in Toronto and Montreal),
who benefit from the old system of politics in that they receive
the majority of grants and appointments from the Liberal Party.
Using scare tactics, it is not surprising that the Liberal Party
was able to keep Ontario firmly tucked under its wing.
It should
be said also that the ruling Liberals are comfortable with their
largely unchallenged world - mainly because the two other federal
parties, the NDP and the Tories, serve as Tweedledum and Tweedledee
to their policies, differing only marginally from them - whatever
the issue: immigration, the constitution, health care, native rights,
taxation or abortion. Understandably, the Liberals were frightened
by the unpredictable independent-minded Reform, now Canadian Alliance
Party, which roared out of the west, trying to upset the Liberal
apple cart with its treasured policies, practices and procedures.
Hence its nasty campaign.
Canadian Alliance
The Canadian
Alliance had neither experience nor organization. The party leader,
Stockwell Day, was elected as party leader only in July, and had
sat as a Member of Parliament for only days before the election
was called. Canadian Alliance was a new party (reconstructed from
the old Reform Party, which itself only began in 1988), it had no
election organization in place and only one of its campaign officials
had federal election experience. All the rest were federal election
neophytes. There were no daily policy briefings. Although the Alliance
leader's agenda was centrally directed, he seemed to wander across
the country without any real direction or planning. It was a poorly
organized campaign.
Nonetheless,
even with these tremendous disadvantages, the Canadian Alliance
managed to elect 66 MPs (up from 58 from the 1997 election), almost
exclusively from the West, holding only two seats east of Manitoba,
in Ontario. The Alliance took no seats in Quebec or the Atlantic
provinces.
The good news
for the Alliance is that it is the only party that has gained in
popular vote in all regions of the country. Its percentage of popular
vote rose from 19.35% in 1997 to 25.48%.
The difficult
news for the Canadian Alliance, on the other hand, is that it failed
to make the longed-for breakthrough in the province of Ontario.
The latter clearly supported the old adage, "Better the devil
you know than the devil you don't know," and gave the Liberal
party 100 seats. The "unite the right" concept took a
deep nose dive in this election. However, on the other hand, the
Alliance was up considerably in votes cast, both in the Atlantic
provinces and Ontario and came second in 80 ridings in Ontario.
The Alliance was in many ways successful. The campaign results clearly
indicate it is growing and on the upswing.
Bloc Quebecois
The Bloc Quebecois,
too, had a big setback in that it lost seats to the anti-sovereignist
and the loathed, Jean Chrétien. The Bloc entered the election
with 44 seats and ended up with 38, with the Liberal party picking
up the BQ losses. The Liberals' increased strength in Quebec, from
29 to 36 seats, gave it a solid base, together with Ontario, to
win its large majority of 172 seats. Interestingly, however, this
federal election fought out in Quebec did not have much to do with
the sovereignty issue, but much more to do with internal Quebec
politics. A problem arose for the Bloc in that its provincial counterpart,
the Parti Québécois, had recently passed legislation
forcing municipal amalgamations in Quebec City, Montreal and Hull.
This legislation was highly unpopular with the Quebec public, and
it was this provincial initiative that led to a voters' backlash
against the federal BQ and its loss of seats to the Liberals. In
addition, it has been customary in Quebec for the provincial Liberals
not to get involved in the federal election, but , in this election,
Liberal Party leader, Jean Charest, put the weight of his considerable
provincial machinery at the disposal of the federal Liberals, which
greatly enhanced its effectiveness.
NDP
The NDP also suffered a severe set-back in this election. Although
the party leader, Alexa McDonough, won her own seat in Halifax,
the party lost 3 of its 7 seats in the Atlantic provinces. Its remaining
seats, of a total of 13, were sprinkled across the prairies and
British Columbia. The NDP did at least retain its party status,
but it will soon face an internal fight over its own identity. That
is, the NDP has always depended for its financial support on the
labour unions, the leaders of which naturally demand that the NDP
remain intractably to the left. "He who pays the piper calls
the tune" applies to the NDP today.
As a result, the NDP has been unable to evolve and develop successfully
to move more to the middle of the road in its policies, as has its
political counterpart in Britain, Labour leader, Tony Blair, and,
in the US, Bill Clinton. These two leaders have been able to separate
themselves from labour union control. The control by the unions
of her party led Ms. McDonough to campaign singing only one tune
- health care. She did not dare branch out onto other issues, except
for abortion: dramatically, she claimed she represented all Canadian
women's (pro-abortion) views on the issue.
Progressive
Conservative
The Progressive Conservatives mustered just 12 seats (down from
the 15 seats it held at the time of Parliament's dissolution). This
is in sharp contrast to Mr. Clark's vainglorious boast during the
campaign that his party had "momentum" and that it would
capture at least 20 seats in the Atlantic provinces alone. In fact,
the party lost seats there, going from 20 in the 1997 election to
9 (there were defections after the 1997 election). It retained a
seat in Quebec, one in Brandon, Manitoba, and Mr. Clark won his
own seat in Calgary Centre, defeating Canadian Alliance incumbent,
Eric Lowther. This loss of Mr. Lowther is a sad blow to pro-family
supporters as Mr. Lowther, who served as the Canadian Alliance Family
Critic, cared deeply about the issue. He was indefatigable in his
efforts to protect the Canadian family. Joe Clark, by contrast,
is a pro-abortion, feminist supporter, more in tune with the left-wing
Liberals than he is with genuine conservatives. It is significant
that Mr. Clark won his seat, not because of Tory policies, but because
of a cross-over vote by Liberals and NDP, homosexuals and lesbians
who wanted anyone but the Alliance to win. Mr. Clark is also the
man responsible for the Liberal majority: in a large number of ridings,
especially in Ontario, the votes split between the Tories and the
Canadian Alliance allowed the Liberals to slip to victory right
up the middle. As long as Joe Clark rides his own hobby horse, deluding
himself that he heads a national party, the Liberals will be the
ruling party in this country. The fact is that the Tories were considerably
down in the number of votes cast both in the Atlantic provinces
and Ontario - its popular vote declining from 19% in 1997 to 12%
-- the largest drop in all major parties.
The Future
Mr. Chrétien
Although Mr. Chrétien won the federal election hands down,
there is little question he will be gone within the next year or
two at most. The only question will be whether he'll go willingly
or be shoved out by March 2002, when the Liberal party is scheduled
to hold its biennial convention.
The national
Liberal constitution requires that the first convention after a
general election must include a leadership review. Even during the
election campaign, Mr. Chrétien had difficulty keeping his
party united. Further, not only does his chief rival, Paul Martin,
command wide support within the Liberal Caucus and among the party
rank and file, he also has control of the Liberal party machine,
including the national executive, as well as the party apparatus
in each province. Consequently, it is only a matter of time before
Mr. Chrétien leaves the political scene. With his departure,
he will try to put in place his dauphin, Brian Tobin of Newfoundland,
to assume the reins of power instead of his despised rival, Paul
Martin. It's unlikely that Paul Martin will lose the party leadership
next time around.
Mr. Day
Mr. Day announced in his concession speech that he will be around
for at least the next ten years in order to continue his party's
policies. At the present time there is no one else in line to seek
the leadership of the party. Mr. Day, however, will have to face
tough questioning about the poorly organized election campaign and
how effective the Liberals were in pushing him off message.
The big decision
facing the party will be whether it should continue to try to "unite
the right," especially in its efforts to break into Ontario
by expanding its toe-hold of two seats there, or whether, alternately,
it should concentrate on holding the West and the balance of power
in Ottawa. It is highly unlikely, though, that the Alliance will
abandon its tens of thousands of supporters in the east. Instead,
it will probably continue to build on its already sturdy foundation
there.
The BQ,
NDP and Tories
There is no question that both NDP Alexa McDonough and PC Joe Clark
are going to have to face a leadership review in the next few years.
The NDP's slippage will no doubt open the divisive question about
where it should position itself on the political spectrum to win
votes. The Tories' dismal showing, despite a well run campaign and
an experienced leader, also raises questions about the future of
that party under Joe Clark, in the Canadian electoral system.
The BQ's destiny,
as always, hangs on the sovereignty issue and the credibility of
its provincial counterpart, the Parti Québecois. One thing
is certain, the sovereignty issue will continue to haunt us.
Our Stand
REAL Women will continue unabated in its work. We will continue
to appear before government committees, on TV and radio and in the
courts. Life has never been easy for us and nothing has changed.
In spite of everything, we are a presence to raise the issues, speak
the truth, and defend with all our might the traditional family.
Our voice will continue just as always, with the support, both financial
and moral, of our dedicated members.
When the history
books of this turbulent period are written - a time when the materialistic,
anti-religious, pragmatists controlled the levers of power - it
will never be said that they ruled without challenge. REAL Women
will continue to serve as challengers of their agenda, fighting
for what is the truth, what is right and what is just.
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