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THE WORLD SPINNING FROM A DEPOPULATION CRISIS

Since the 1960s, experts have been pressing the red alert button, warning us of the terrible dangers of over-population. Were they ever wrong!

Although the number of children in a family is a very sensitive and personal matter, each and every birth has major implications for society. Statistics Canada, for example, reveals that our birth rate in 2000 was a dismal 1.49 babies per woman of child-bearing age - well below replacement level. However, there was a slight glimmer of improvement in the 2001 statistics (released August 11, 2003), which revealed that the birth rate had increased minimally to 1.51 babies per woman of child-bearing age. This child-bearing rate is disturbingly low.

Europe has been experiencing terrible problems because of the decline in its birth rates. Never have birth and fertility rates fallen so low for so long, in so many places, as they have in Europe, which has seen 45 consecutive years of fertility decline. As a result, the European Union expects to suffer a net loss of 70 million people by 2050.

Some examples of Europe's declining population are as follows:

• Italy: Pensions currently paid to the elderly in Italy amount to nearly one-third of the government's spending. This percentage, because of the low birth rate, will rise to 60% by 2050 when Italians over the age of 60 years increase from the current 25% to nearly 50% of the population.
  
  As a result of this serious population decline, the Italian government announced in October 2003, a $500 cash bonus for the birth of a second child, and also announced an increase in the retirement age. The latter decision resulted in a nation-wide strike in Italy on October 24, 2003, that paralysed the nation for a day. The strike reflected the tension arising between the government and the people because of the diminished entitlements caused by a declining population.



• Hungary: This country has a fertility rate of 1.3 children per woman of child-bearing age. If this birth rate continues, by 2040 Hungary will have a population of only 6 million people in comparison to the year 2000, when it had a population of 10 million.



• Ireland: The birth rate has dropped from 2.2 children in 1981 to 1.6 children per woman of child-bearing age in 2002. There has also been a dramatic increase in the number of wives in Ireland aged 24 to 34 years who have no children. Further, households made up of both married and cohabiting couples with no children have been the fastest growing categories of family households for the past six years.

These demographic figures in Europe indicate that there will be one worker per one retired person by 2050. Already, the declining population in Europe has given rise to reductions in social services, which have led to angry demonstrators objecting to this decline in services. Such demonstrations have occurred in the past few months in France and Austria, as well as Italy.

The U.K. has attempted to meet the ominous drain in pension funds caused by its low birth rate with the recent announcement that it will raise the retirement age from 65 to 70 years. Other countries are offering job re-training programs for 65 year olds in order to encourage them to remain in the workforce. Increased taxes to cover the growing financial problems in Europe are also proving to be another solution, but also a headache for many governments, which must face a disgruntled electorate over the rise in taxes.

Other nations are also experiencing a similar depopulation crisis:

• Japan: Only 14% of the population is under 15 years of age, whereas people over 65 years of age now make up 18.5% of the population. Japan's population has declined, from 2.75 children per family between 1955 - 1960, to 1.33 today. Japan's population is expected to peak in 2006, and fall rapidly over the next 50 years. That is, in 2006, Japan is expected to have a population of 127.8 million, then decline to 100.6 million by 2050.



• Russia: This country is rapidly becoming depopulated and its population will decrease by 20 million people within the next decade. The Russian birthrate is only 1.2 children per family, and this, coupled with a rise in the death rate, due to widespread alcoholism and the spread of disease and poverty, is decimating the nation. It is now believed that two-thirds of Russian territory is settled as sparsely as it was in the Neolithic age, with less than one person per square kilometre. The Russian population is expected to fall from 149 million today to only 90 million in 2050. Russian President Putin has stated that the depopulation of Russia threatens the country's very existence, and is causing it to become a senile nation. Russia's population decline is so severe that the Duma (Parliament) recently ordered restrictions on abortion, which has been widely available since the 1920s as a birth control measure.
  
  About five million, or 13%, of Russian married couples are infertile. In nearly three out of four cases, the infertility is attributed to the woman having complications from one or more abortions. There are in fact more abortions than live births in Russia, 1.7 abortions for every live birth. In 1994, the Rand Corporation found that by the end of her child-bearing years, the average Russian woman underwent three abortions.



• Already, 14 countries in Asia have fertility rates below replacement level. The elderly population will overtake the younger population by 2020 in Singapore, and 2035 in China.

The Population of the U.S. Continues to Grow

The U.S., unlike other countries, has managed to maintain a respectable birth rate: in 1999 it was 2.8 children per woman of child-bearing age. This birth rate decreased in 2000 census to 2.1, still substantially higher than other western nations, and combined with its immigration, the U.S. population is growing rapidly.

The US, together with India, Pakistan, Nigeria, China, Bangladesh, Ethiopia and the Congo, are now the world's most populous nations, and are expected to account for half the world's population increase by 2050.

The U.S. is frequently at odds with the UN and the European Union. However, with its comfortable birth rate, the U.S. is going to have the last laugh: its demographics ensure that American power will continue to grow relative to the European Union's, with its ageing population and the inevitable economic decline. Such factors will make Europe much less competitive - especially economically and militarily. As fertility is the engine of growth, the U.S. will dominate the world stage throughout the entire 21st century.

Why the U.S. and Canada Have Different Rates of Birth

It is intriguing that the U.S. and Canada, so similar in many ways, differ so much in regard to their respective birth rates. Some reasons for the difference include the fact that marriage happens earlier and is more common in the U.S. than here. There is also evidence that Canadians have more difficulty entering the job market, and may, as a result, postpone starting a family. Another key factor may be that there has been traditionally a higher birth rate among Hispanics and blacks. Another factor is that young Canadian women are using the pill more widely than are American women, perhaps due to our medical health system and its universal access, which makes birth control readily available. Further, religion plays a role in family size. Proportionately, twice as many Americans as Canadians regularly attend church. About 40% of Americans report weekly worship, and many religious groups, such as Roman Catholic, Mormon and Evangelical Protestant, encourage and welcome the birth of children.

Also, Canadians pay nearly double the taxes that Americans pay. Canadian couples as a result have little discretionary income left to raise a family. The U.S. Government, on the other hand, offers very generous tax benefits to families. Every person in a U.S. household, regardless of age, receives a $2,600 tax exemption. When calculating tax, families in the U.S. with children under 16, with an annual income below $100,000, receive a $600-per-child reduction of their taxes.

In short, if Canadians have fewer children, it is partly because the Canadian government encourages this by a tax system that provides tax advantages to parents in the workplace but not to a parent at home. Also, the government seems to have little concern about the financial sacrifices made by parents raising children, as reflected in its decision to continually decrease reductions allowable for wives and children

If it's at all concerned about Canada's future, our government should re-examine its priorities and begin to provide policies that are family-friendly.

UN Acknowledges the World's Depopulation

The UN has remained locked in the 1960's mindset that the world is overpopulated. Subsequently, the UN has advocated that reproductive rights (abortion) and contraception must be readily available world-wide. However, in 2003, the UN finally admitted that its world population projections were inaccurate. First, the UN Population Division in 2002 warned that Europe is on the brink of economic and political upheaval because of its precipitous drop in fertility and finally, in 2003, the UN revised its population projections downward.

Has this fact led to the UN changing its population control policies? Not one bit. The UN is still warning the world, through its UN Population Fund that family planning and abortion must be made widely available.

For example, on World Population Day in July 2003, UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan, and the Executive Director of the UN Family Population Agency, Thoraya Ahmed Obaid, as well as Jan Kavan, President of the UN General Assembly, ignored the reality of rapidly declining population world-wide, and called, once again, for the ready availability of reproductive health services (abortion) and contraception. According to the World Bank, in 2002, 25% of the Chinese population lack access to a source of safe water, whereas 83% of child-bearing age women have access to contraception. In Vietnam, it is 44% without safe water, but 75% who have contraception available. What a travesty!

What's Behind The Decline in Population?

Couples are in the midst of an historic revolution that is weakening the family and devaluing the role of children in people's lives. A relentless drive for consumer-gratification and self-fulfillment has taken the world down a path that threatens its very existence. Dropping marriage rates, increased divorce and high abortion rates are the symptoms of this illness. People used to regard the birth of a child as a priceless gift. Now parents, both of whom often work outside the home, complain about the complications of organizing their day around school hours and other inconveniences incompatible with their affluent lifestyle. Parents argue that they are having only one child to provide that child with the "best" of everything - schools, toys, clothes - but no brothers or sisters with whom to share his/her life. It is an excuse or rationalization, but it is not the reason.

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